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Sunday, January 3, 2010

After successful international trade mark registration for pashmi

KATHMANDU: After successful international trade mark registration for pashmina, the governing is mulling over branding the Nepali hand-knotted woolen carpet to assure buyers of quality and strengthen the product image in the international market. The step is being pushed as international buyers have recommended quality accreditation and labeling for this premium Nepali export. It also comes as one major step towards establishing image differentiation between hand-knotted and cheaper machine-made carpets. The Ministry of Commerce and Supplies (MoCS) has pushed the program as a key step for building the product image during the new fiscal year and has sought allocation of Rs 20 million for the purpose. Part of the proposed budget will go for supporting trade mark registration for pashmina, under a program which has moved ahead successfully, and the rest will go for a carpet development program, said a government source. Unlike in the past when participation in international trade fairs used to top the export promotion program, the government has decided to de-prioritize this, in view of the global economic slowdown. “The demand for carpets has shrunk substantially in the wake of the global economic downturn and we understand our participation in trade fairs alone will not change the situation,” he stated. Instead, the ministry prefers to concentrate in 2009/10 on product development, labeling and accreditation, and to consolidate the product image. The ministry argues that registration of international trade mark and labeling for hand-knotted carpets will set up a system whereby hand-knotted and machine-made carpets can be differently labeled and tagged. This will make it easy for the government to open up exports of machine-made carpets as well, if manufacturers and exporters converged over the issue in future. Presently, Nepal restricts exports of machine-made carpet, even though exporters have been demanding the government open it, given rising demand and price advantages. The restriction has continued because manufacturers have resisted change, saying it will open the space for wrongdoers to manipulate quality and market products under different categories, thereby tainting the image of the product. There was a brief flurry of market optimism around Christmas, but in January there were few editions of the World Business Report that do not contain the words "jobless", "recession", "loss", "bankrupt" and on occasion, "meltdown".
Thank goodness for sport.
After the financial collapse and the economic collapse, more news of appalling corporate results started to flood the newswires within a week of New Year's Day. There was even a frightening revival of the financial crisis, a bit like some ghastly corpse clambering out of its coffin.
You can cut rates as much as you like but until the toxic assets are removed from the banks and you get a fully functioning interbank lending market nothing is going to happen.
Stephen Pope, Cantor Fitzgerald
In the US, the government poured another $20 billion into Bank of America, while Citigroup announced another $8 billion of losses, while Royal Bank of Scotland said it had lost £28 billion ($52 billion) in 2008, the biggest loss in British business history.
In India the Satyam scandal broke, and in Japan the numbers coming out of companies like Toyota, Sony, and Nintendo astonished even the most pessimistic.
But here's the puzzle: how come the equity markets held up?
Okay, there was no recovery, and most markets did show a decline, but relative to the grim news flow, it was a pretty muted reaction.
In fact, if you take a look at the 12-month graph of any of the major markets, they look suspiciously as though might have been bouncing along the bottom since early November.
Is this a bottom?
I am loathe to call a bottom to this market, but the resilience in the face of this catalogue of disastrous numbers can't be brushed aside.
Stephen Pope, chief global market strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald Europe, points out that the S&P 500 index, after the bursting of the dot.com bubble, found a floor back in 2002 at 779.
This November the S&P 500 hit 752, but has been curiously reluctant to go anywhere near that level since. It's now around 850.
"Equities are already pricing in a lot of the problems," Mr Pope says.
"Investors are looking at the year ahead and know it's not going to be pretty. They will be prepared to buy, get involved, get a return but they won't hold on, they won't invest long-term," he added.
He also warned about the painfully slow process of recovery.
"You can cut rates as much as you like but until the toxic assets are removed from the banks and you get a fully functioning interbank lending market nothing is going to happen.
"And even when that does happen, the psychology of the borrowers has been badly damaged - who is going to borrow to buy a car when they are frightened they will be out of a job in six months?"
Japan puzzle
Until very recently many believed Japan was able to weather the storm better than most.
The torrent of bad news this month has swept away those illusions.
However, the market damage again has been surprisingly limited.
Dr. Seijiro Takeshita, Director at Mizuho International said:
"Share prices have not reacted in Japan as badly as we would have thought. Even when we had the shock of the numbers from Sony and from Canon, their share prices recovered the following day. I think there is a lot of the bad news in the prices."
Dr Takeshita also pointed out that there had been a record number of retail investors opening new share accounts in Japan. No one is investing yet.
"They are far too scared," he said, but as companies adjusted to lower inventories, possibly by the end of the year, "we might see a correction to this excessively negative phase."
Pall of Gloom
Not everyone is so sanguine, as the pall of gloom that hangs over the World Economic Forum shows.
Deepak Lalwani, India Director at stockbrokers Astaire in London says the Indian stock market could fall further.
"With the Mumbai Sensex at 9,400 I think there is a possibility we could fall to 8,000," he says.
"We may be bobbing along at the bottom but my fear is the worst has not yet happened.
"This crisis started in the US and the rot there started with the housing market, and that is still in a dreadful state. That said, the Indian market at 8,000 will offer some great opportunities."
Most markets are indeed down on the month, although the main characteristic is volatility, not collapse.
In India the falls were limited to just 3% and in China, shares gained 10%.
There was one spectacular winner - Sri Lanka, where the index rocketed 21% on hopes of an end to the civil war.
Make the most of it - there'll be precious few such performances in 2009.

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